Kwangju, Bush and Iraq

The main stage for the May 18 Kwangju memorial. This was taken May 16, and this backdrop was taken down before the evening events took place. Note the pictures of the Iraqi prisoner abuse in the upper right hand corner -- this abuse was linked to several incidents of U.S. "atrocities" against Koreans, including the NoGunRi incident and the Kwangju massacre. While the Iraq war was certainly exploited by various interest groups in Kwangju this May, it is also relatively unpopular with hte general South Korean population, particularly the deployment of South Korean troops. This unpopularity will only rise with the recent kidnapping and threat of beheading of a South Korean citizen in Iraq.  

A Kidnapping and a Presidential Predicament

June 20, 2004 (YONHAP) -- Kim Sun-il, a translator for a Korean military supply provider for the U.S. Army, is abducted by a group led by Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, who U.S. officials say is a Jordanian with close links to the al-Qaida leadership and Osama bin Laden. Video footage aired by the Arab satellite TV network Al-Jazeera showed the militants threatening to behead Kim if South Korea does not withdraw its troops operating in Iraq.

Just days after the beheading of Paul Johnson in Saudi Arabia by al Qaeda linked militants, a South Korean in Iraq faces the same fate. The demands from the captors include the withdrawal of the existing 650 or so ROK troops in Iraq and the reversal of the June 18 decision by Seoul to send an additional 3000 or so troops to Irbil in northern Iraq.

South Korea will not give in to the kidnappers, and Mr. Kim faces a nearly certain demise. And while on the personal level this is a tragedy, there are broader implications.

First, it is clear that al Qaeda cells and sympathy groups are trading concepts and ideas across borders. Johnson's death in Saudi Arabia followed the May beheading of Nicholas Berg in Iraq. Now it is once again the militants in Iraq who are threatening another beheading, this time a South Korean.

Second, it is sure to increase opposition in South Korea for the troops deployment, already unpopular (note in an earlier blog post the main focus of the Kwangju memorial was Iraq). This is not the only one of South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun's policies that is meeting public opposition - the decision to move the capital (and in particular go back on his election pledge to have a referendum on the move).

Roh has just recovered from his impeachment, overturned by the Constitutional Court only a month ago, and he is pushing through all his projects as quickly as he can before fading into lame duckness. South Korea's political system, in order to prevent another dictator from taking charge, allows only a single five year term for the President, with no vice president. This leaves the standing president a lame duck for the last two years or so of his presidency, particularly if parliament isn't on his side.

While Roh technically has the support of the ruling Uri Party, it only has a slim majority in the parliament and is fractured internally, with members already setting their sights on the 2007 presidential elections. Roh's ability to maintain momentum may be further hampered by the kidnapping, particularly if it does end bad for the hostage.

Ultimately, South Korea may change its presidential system again, or switch to a parliamentary system, as was promised by former President Kim Dae Jung. But until then, wild mood swings and unfortunate incidents will continue to wield disproportionate influence over the ability of the president to lead the nation.

(Well, that certainly ended on a significant note. Now realize that there are many things affecting the presidency, but the system does little to promote the ability of the president to truly direct the nation -- and in fact may even have been designed to prevent that.)

Flowers, Time and Other Musings

Well, once again as I was browsing the KCNA ([North] Korean Central News Agency), I came across what sometimes seems a regular feature - a brief article reporting the delivery of a floral basket to Kim Jong Il, from Yassir Arafat.

Here is the Article:

Floral Basket to Kim Jong Il from Palestinian President
Pyongyang, June 17 (KCNA) -- Leader Kim Jong Il received a floral basket from Yasser Arafat, president of the State of Palestine, on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of his start of work at the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea. The floral basket was conveyed to Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun by Palestinian Ambassador e. p. to the DPRK Shaher Mohammed Abdlah on June 17.

Anyway, every time I see this (which comes out like every month), I have the strangest image of a long-distance one-sided love affair, with carp-faced Arafat sending roses to an increasingly exasperated Kim Jong Il, who can't quite figure out how to stop the unrequited love of a distant revolutionary.

But anyway, while I enjoyed sharing that visual image, that was an example of why the internet is a place where, despite (or because of?) the massive amount of useful information, it is very difficult to sort between the proverbial wheat and chaff. At one point in time, news and information was expensive to produce and distribute, thus keeping most of the chaff out. Now, all it takes is a little time, and around the world it goes.

And speaking of time, if I may digress further, I really haven't had much since I returned home, hence the rather infrequent posts. But much has been going on in Korea and East Asia. The next round of six-party talks are coming up soon, the South and North Koreans are removing propaganda materials and speakers from the DMZ, and President Roh Moo Hyun is trying to prove his strength, pushing through the troop deployment to Iraq and breaking a campaign promise for a referendum on the capital move, instead simply pushing through with plans for the move.

Well, with that, I bid you good night, and will try to update a little more frequently. I still have plenty of photos from the trip I can add in.

Troop Withdrawal - Pains of a Developing Relationship

Details of the long-expected reduction in U.S. forces in South Korea are emerging, with a drop of 12,500 being the current number on the table. Ultimately, this round of reductions, tentatively set to conclude by the end of 2005, would leave 25,000 U.S. forces inside South Korea.

South Korea maintains a military of 650,000, half of North Korea’s 1.2 million man military. The removal of 12,500 U.S. forces has little substantive effect on the actual physical security of South Korea, but does make a significant statement – at least from the South Korean point of view.

While Washington is concerned about its broader global defense realignment (and the 12,500 number is low by some estimates of what needs to be withdrawn from Korea), South Koreans view the reduction as being directed toward them exclusively. Following a recent upsurge in anti-American sentiments, the troops reduction is being perceived and portrayed as U.S. punishment for South Korean ingratitude.

This is a feeling Washington does little to counter. For U.S. policymakers, it is acceptable to let the Koreans sweat it out a bit, as the perceived anti-Americanism is a big headache for relations. Ultimately, though, Washington has no intention of abandoning South Korea, and the Seoul have little interest in seeing the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from the peninsula.

As with any relationship, there are ups and downs, and the relationship between Seoul and Washington is no different.