North Korea Stirs the Pot a Bit More

North Korea kept up the pressure March 28, testing four surface-to-ship missiles in the West Sea and warning via the KCNA that U.S. insistence on North Korea declaring a Uranium program in addition to its Plutonium program could derail the dismantlement of North Korean nuclear facilities.

As I noted yesterday when Pyongyang booted the South Korean government workers in Kaesong, Pyongyang is trying to create a sense of imminent crisis and the potential for the reversal of all progress made thus far in the nuclear talks. This is standard negotiating tactics for the North. If there is a crisis, then when talks resume, the focus is on returning to the pre-crisis status-quo rather, with less attention on the next steps in the process. In essence Pyongyang stalls the long-term issues and gets the other parties to focus on new short-term issues. Then, when Pyongyang gets what it wants, it comes back to the long-term issues again, seeming relatively reasonable.

The U.S. and China are very aware of these tactics, and lose patience with the North Korean games. But they also are constantly drawn into the North Korean plan, because, despite knowing it is just an act to get greater leverage, there is still the sense of crisis that needs resolved. So, somewhat exasperated, they trudge back into the talks with the North, knowing that to get the longer-term process back on track, they need to push through the new "crises" first.

Ah, the joys of nuclear diplomacy with that wily, wrascally Kim Jong Il...

Qingdao Naval Museum

Probably one of my favorite spots in Qingdao is the PLAN Naval Museum. Now, the inside is nothing to write home about - seriously. There are numerous display cases of plates, plaques, and trinkets that were gifts of other navies. There is even a stuffed penguin from some Chinese expedition to the Antarctic. But outside is a different story. There, they have so many toys to look at - and if it happens to be open, there are destroyers, and escort ship and a decommissioned Romeo-class submarine to wander through as well. Rumor has it that the PLAN is considering placing a soon-to-be decommissioned nuclear submarine at the museum in the next few years as well. now THAT would be cool. The following pictures are from two visits - a nice sunny day in March 2008 and a windy, rainy day in July 2007.
This is the submarine, an old Romeo-class knock-off, built by the Chinese (all the cast parts inside are stamped in Chinese, not Russian). They wont let you take pictures inside, though if it wasn't for my host being concerned of the consequences, that wouldn't have stopped me. Maybe next time...
237 sits up along the wall, splendid in the afternoon sun. The hatches are small, as old submarines were. There are six torpedo tubes in the front, each with a red star on the door, and two in the rear.
They let you go in one end and out the other. There are a few spots rusting out inside, but in general it inst in all that bad of condition for a display.

The AnShan Destroyer, formerly the Courage of the Soviet Navy. This is one of the PLAN's first two Destroyers, leftovers from the Soviet's World War II fleet.
The red flag flies proudly over the anti-aircraft guns.


The NanChong was launched in 1968, and is a Chinese-built craft.







Two views of the aptly-titled "Airplane."

There are plenty of aircraft and other goodies to admire.
On a nice sunny day, even a missile is a good place for a bird to take a rest...
This section of the display was closed, unfortunately, when I visited in March. All the hips and submarine were closed in July. They are undergoing renovations at the museum, enlarging and modernizing it.

One of China's older hovercraft landing vehicles.
The NanChong on the left, the AnShan on the right.

Wooden-hulled torpedo boat number 245, famous because Zhou Enlai and Mao Zedong came aboard once.


A row of MiGs, and their Chinese variants, the F, J an dA series.
Qingliu or B-6 Seaplane.
Sea Eagle surface-to-ship missile.
F5 (MiG-17 variant)
A5 (MiG-19 variant)
A lovely display of projectiles and projectile launchers on the grounds of the Naval Museum.

Surface-to-ship missiles.
The central display area.
Vintage Soviet-era aircraft on display.

North Korea Tries to Stir the Pot... Again

North Korea has expelled the 11 South Korean government officials stationed at the Kaesong joint economic zone, sending them unceremoniously packing at around 1:00 AM March 27. The expulsion was accompanied by North Korean references to earlier comments by South Korea’s minister of Unification, Kim Ha Joong, who said expansion of the joint economic zone would be contingent upon a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. Pyongyang allowed five South Korean civilian managers to remain in the city.

The move by Pyongyang serves several purposes. First, it is a way for the north to show its displeasure with the comments coming out of the new South Korean government regarding North Korean policy, not only on the economic front, but also comments from South Korea's military that it would carry out a pre-emptive strike on North Korea if it thought Pyongyang was preparing a nuclear strike on south Korea. Pyongyang is also displeased with Seoul's very public reconciliation with Washington – the friction in the U.S.-South Korean relationship were a convenient tool for Pyongyang to exploit, and it appears to be fading.

But most importantly, North Korea is trying to create a sense of crisis – first to test the South Korean resolve and see how the Lee Myong Bak government reacts, and second to inject a sense of instability into the political and security situation on the Peninsula. North Korea has long relied upon crises – usually manufactured by Pyongyang – to extract concessions out of South Korea and the United States, but also China and Japan. The series of nuclear crises stretching from the early 1990s to today have been largely instigated by North Korea for the main purpose of negotiating things back to the status quo while gaining economic assistance and prolonging the regime.

With the North Korean nuclear test in 2006, North Korea pretty much shot its wad in creating crises, and lost one of its main negotiating tactics. Even the three month delay in delivering a report of North Korean nuclear sites has done little to rile the United States into giving in to North Korea's own special form of international coercion. So Pyongyang is trying to up the ante, creating a sense of tensions with South Korea and hinting that all the progress to date could be scrapped if something isn’t done soon.

In some ways, then, this may be less a sign of troubles than of North Korea's decision to finally come back to the table and make a deal with the united States (perhaps taking advantage of offers to provide one public list showing the plutonium program and one private list showing the uranium and proliferation activities). It is a longstanding pattern for North Korea since it lost its Cold war sponsors – always go into negotiations from a position of strength, and make sure people feel a sense of urgency and crisis so they make faster and bigger concessions than they would under more sedate negotiations.

China, T1bet, and crisis management

China is an interesting place sometimes. The Tibet incident has brought out the total confusion and indecisiveness of Chinese crisis management. In Beijing, for example, every time the BBC runs a story about Tibet, the channel gets blocked. But in some other Chinese cities, BBC is not blocked at all. Some websites and stories about Tibet are being blocked, others are not. I can post to my blog, but cannot read it. Some email is blocked (particularly outgoing), but incoming is just fine. Not related to Tibet, but also notable is that I cannot read any of the major Taiwanese newspapers... except the China Pot. I guess the Taiwanese tricked Beijing by calling it "China" Post, as opposed to "Taiwan" post...

The Tibet protests really do expose one of the longstanding problems of China – its problems with assimilating the populations of the buffer zones. The Tibetans haven't become part of China. Rather they have been kept under control by military garrisons and the government-arranged influx of Han Chinese and Hui Muslims. The opening of the Tibet railway was seen as a major blow to the Tibetans, as it would open the floodgates to the Han and Hui, further diluting the Tibetan population in Tibet.

With the annual remembrance of the 1959 uprising, this year things got out of hand. There was an explosion of the built-up socio-economic tensions. Like the LA riots, we saw one ethnic population target another, primarily hitting economic interests (shops and the like) that represented the economic power of the immigrants (and reminded about the economic weakness of the natives). China has clamped down in Lhasa for now, though there are reports of sympathy unrest in other cities in Tibet and neighboring provinces. And Beijing has mostly avoided what could have been a considerable increase in political pressure from the world – sure, BBC is running plenty of stories of Tibet now, but the U.S. government is pre-occupied with the economy, and in general mot governments have taken a mild stance so as not to create undue tensions or impact the coming Olympics.

But dodging a bullet is not the same as being out of trouble. China is a pressure cooker of socio-economic crises, and the lid is likely to blow off in the years after the Olympics. The mixed openness and control that led up to the Olympics, and the booming economic benefits for a few in the South and East are making the crisis for the CPC nearly unavoidable. They have long been capable of management – deal with the immediate and hope the future stays distant – but that will not serve forever. That was how Tiananmen got out of hand; they refused to address the issue and delayed response until the only response left was unfortunate.

The Olympics are swell, but they do not change the reality in China.

Howdy from Beijing

I'm back in Beijing, briefly, and thought I'd share a tiny piece of a day here (this is just a fraction of the 230 or so pics I took). The air is full of the yellow dust, construction dust and car exhaust, there is massive security for the CPPCC and NPC sessions, and all the subway stations are under construction and half torn apart (aside form those on the new number 5 line). But the food is good, the art scams are going strong, and there is plenty to do and see.

A guard stands across from Tiananmen Square in the morning. the Square was closed in the morning for the final session of the CPPCC. Security was heavy to dissuade any protests or disruptions. This guy was prepared for any self immolation attempt or other fire emergency.
The new North-South Number 5 subway line is open. Modern, clean, and with the glass safety doors. Packed like sardines on the cars, though. The new cars are clean, have electronic maps to show where you are and where you are going, and some have security cameras mounted on the ceiling. the rush to finish the subway by June has allowed Canadian and Japanese firms to get nice contracts, along with Chinese companies. Everyone wins...
A local tourist finishes a day at the imperial Palace Museum. Couldn't resist the hat.
A window. I like Windows. But I will only post one this time.
Guards marching toward the imperial Palace after closing time.
A door pull in the Imperial palace. This door hasn't been caught up in the renovations... yet.
One of the workers taking a break from placing new tiles as part of the renovations of the Imperial Palace.
An artistic iced mocha at the Coffee Lobby near the Chaoyoungmen subway stop.
No fireworks, OK?!
Not sure what they didn't like about the hard-hatted construction worker, but he can't see now.
Construction over near Wangfujing. All the construction inside the second or third ring roads was to have been completed before January. Not a chance. I'm not sure it will be done before the Olympics are over.
Cleaning up the stream for spring.
I cant decide if this is an admonition against blaring horns or car bombs, but neither are all that appreciated.